Title: | Microsoft Finance Time Series Forecasting Framework |
Version: | 0.5.0 |
Description: | Automated time series forecasting developed by Microsoft Finance. The Microsoft Finance Time Series Forecasting Framework, aka Finn, can be used to forecast any component of the income statement, balance sheet, or any other area of interest by finance. Any numerical quantity over time, Finn can be used to forecast it. While it can be applied outside of the finance domain, Finn was built to meet the needs of financial analysts to better forecast their businesses within a company, and has a lot of built in features that are specific to the needs of financial forecasters. Happy forecasting! |
URL: | https://microsoft.github.io/finnts/, https://github.com/microsoft/finnts |
BugReports: | https://github.com/microsoft/finnts/issues |
License: | MIT + file LICENSE |
Encoding: | UTF-8 |
RoxygenNote: | 7.3.2 |
Imports: | cli, Cubist, dials, digest, doParallel, dplyr, earth, feasts, foreach, fs, generics, glue, glmnet, gtools, hts, kernlab, lubridate, magrittr, methods, parallel, parsnip, plyr, purrr, recipes, rlang, rsample, rules, snakecase, stringr, tibble, tidyr, tidyselect, timetk, tune, vroom, workflows |
Suggests: | arrow (≥ 8.0.0), AzureStor, Boruta, corrr, knitr, Microsoft365R, notebookutils, qs, reactable, rmarkdown, sparklyr, testthat (≥ 3.0.0), vip |
Config/testthat/edition: | 3 |
Depends: | R (≥ 4.0), modeltime |
VignetteBuilder: | knitr |
NeedsCompilation: | no |
Packaged: | 2024-10-25 17:32:45 UTC; mitokic |
Author: | Mike Tokic |
Maintainer: | Mike Tokic <mftokic@gmail.com> |
Repository: | CRAN |
Date/Publication: | 2024-10-25 17:50:02 UTC |
CUBIST Multistep Horizon
Description
CUBIST Multistep Horizon
Usage
cubist_multistep(
mode = "regression",
committees = NULL,
neighbors = NULL,
max_rules = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
mode |
A single character string for the type of model. The only possible value for this model is "regression". |
committees |
committees |
neighbors |
neighbors |
max_rules |
max rules |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Value
Get Multistep Horizon CUBIST model
Bridge CUBIST Multistep Modeling function
Description
Bridge CUBIST Multistep Modeling function
Usage
cubist_multistep_fit_impl(
x,
y,
committees = 1,
neighbors = 0,
max_rules = 10,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
x |
A dataframe of xreg (exogenous regressors) |
y |
A numeric vector of values to fit |
committees |
committees |
neighbors |
neighbors |
max_rules |
max rules |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Bridge prediction Function for CUBIST Multistep Horizon Models
Description
Bridge prediction Function for CUBIST Multistep Horizon Models
Usage
cubist_multistep_predict_impl(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
... |
Additional
|
Value
predictions
Ensemble Models
Description
Create ensemble model forecasts
Usage
ensemble_models(
run_info,
parallel_processing = NULL,
inner_parallel = FALSE,
num_cores = NULL,
seed = 123
)
Arguments
run_info |
run info using the |
parallel_processing |
Default of NULL runs no parallel processing and forecasts each individual time series one after another. 'local_machine' leverages all cores on current machine Finn is running on. 'spark' runs time series in parallel on a spark cluster in Azure Databricks or Azure Synapse. |
inner_parallel |
Run components of forecast process inside a specific time series in parallel. Can only be used if parallel_processing is set to NULL or 'spark'. |
num_cores |
Number of cores to run when parallel processing is set up. Used when running parallel computations on local machine or within Azure. Default of NULL uses total amount of cores on machine minus one. Can't be greater than number of cores on machine minus 1. |
seed |
Set seed for random number generator. Numeric value. |
Value
Ensemble model outputs are written to disk
Examples
data_tbl <- timetk::m4_monthly %>%
dplyr::rename(Date = date) %>%
dplyr::mutate(id = as.character(id)) %>%
dplyr::filter(
Date >= "2013-01-01",
Date <= "2015-06-01",
id == "M750"
)
run_info <- set_run_info()
prep_data(run_info,
input_data = data_tbl,
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3
)
prep_models(run_info,
models_to_run = c("arima", "glmnet"),
num_hyperparameters = 2
)
train_models(run_info,
run_global_models = FALSE
)
ensemble_models(run_info)
Final Models
Description
Select Best Models and Prep Final Outputs
Usage
final_models(
run_info,
average_models = TRUE,
max_model_average = 3,
weekly_to_daily = TRUE,
parallel_processing = NULL,
inner_parallel = FALSE,
num_cores = NULL
)
Arguments
run_info |
run info using the |
average_models |
If TRUE, create simple averages of individual models and save the most accurate one. |
max_model_average |
Max number of models to average together. Will create model averages for 2 models up until input value or max number of models ran. |
weekly_to_daily |
If TRUE, convert a week forecast down to day by evenly splitting across each day of week. Helps when aggregating up to higher temporal levels like month or quarter. |
parallel_processing |
Default of NULL runs no parallel processing and forecasts each individual time series one after another. 'local_machine' leverages all cores on current machine Finn is running on. 'spark' runs time series in parallel on a spark cluster in Azure Databricks or Azure Synapse. |
inner_parallel |
Run components of forecast process inside a specific time series in parallel. Can only be used if parallel_processing is set to NULL or 'spark'. |
num_cores |
Number of cores to run when parallel processing is set up. Used when running parallel computations on local machine or within Azure. Default of NULL uses total amount of cores on machine minus one. Can't be greater than number of cores on machine minus 1. |
Value
Final model outputs are written to disk.
Examples
data_tbl <- timetk::m4_monthly %>%
dplyr::rename(Date = date) %>%
dplyr::mutate(id = as.character(id)) %>%
dplyr::filter(
Date >= "2013-01-01",
Date <= "2015-06-01"
)
run_info <- set_run_info()
prep_data(run_info,
input_data = data_tbl,
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3
)
prep_models(run_info,
models_to_run = c("arima", "ets"),
back_test_scenarios = 3
)
train_models(run_info,
run_global_models = FALSE
)
final_models(run_info)
Finn Forecast Framework
Description
Calls the Finn forecast framework to automatically forecast any historical time series.
Usage
forecast_time_series(
run_info = NULL,
input_data,
combo_variables,
target_variable,
date_type,
forecast_horizon,
external_regressors = NULL,
hist_start_date = NULL,
hist_end_date = NULL,
combo_cleanup_date = NULL,
fiscal_year_start = 1,
clean_missing_values = TRUE,
clean_outliers = FALSE,
back_test_scenarios = NULL,
back_test_spacing = NULL,
modeling_approach = "accuracy",
forecast_approach = "bottoms_up",
parallel_processing = NULL,
inner_parallel = FALSE,
num_cores = NULL,
target_log_transformation = FALSE,
negative_forecast = FALSE,
fourier_periods = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
rolling_window_periods = NULL,
recipes_to_run = NULL,
pca = NULL,
models_to_run = NULL,
models_not_to_run = NULL,
run_global_models = NULL,
run_local_models = TRUE,
run_ensemble_models = NULL,
average_models = TRUE,
max_model_average = 3,
feature_selection = FALSE,
weekly_to_daily = TRUE,
seed = 123,
run_model_parallel = FALSE,
return_data = TRUE,
run_name = "finnts_forecast"
)
Arguments
run_info |
Run info using |
input_data |
A data frame or tibble of historical time series data. Can also include external regressors for both historical and future data. |
combo_variables |
List of column headers within input data to be used to separate individual time series. |
target_variable |
The column header formatted as a character value within input data you want to forecast. |
date_type |
The date granularity of the input data. Finn accepts the following as a character string day, week, month, quarter, year. |
forecast_horizon |
Number of periods to forecast into the future. |
external_regressors |
List of column headers within input data to be used as features in multivariate models. |
hist_start_date |
Date value of when your input_data starts. Default of NULL is to use earliest date value in input_data. |
hist_end_date |
Date value of when your input_data ends.Default of NULL is to use the latest date value in input_data. |
combo_cleanup_date |
Date value to remove individual time series that don't contain non-zero values after that specified date. Default of NULL is to not remove any time series and attempt to forecast all of them. |
fiscal_year_start |
Month number of start of fiscal year of input data, aids in building out date features. Formatted as a numeric value. Default of 1 assumes fiscal year starts in January. |
clean_missing_values |
If TRUE, cleans missing values. Only impute values for missing data within an existing series, and does not add new values onto the beginning or end, but does provide a value of 0 for said values. Turned off when running hierarchical forecasts. |
clean_outliers |
If TRUE, outliers are cleaned and inputted with values more in line with historical data |
back_test_scenarios |
Number of specific back test folds to run when determining the best model. Default of NULL will automatically choose the number of back tests to run based on historical data size, which tries to always use a minimum of 80% of the data when training a model. |
back_test_spacing |
Number of periods to move back for each back test scenario. Default of NULL moves back 1 period at a time for year, quarter, and month data. Moves back 4 for week and 7 for day data. |
modeling_approach |
How Finn should approach your data. Current default and only option is 'accuracy'. In the future this could evolve to other areas like optimizing for interpretability over accuracy. |
forecast_approach |
How the forecast is created. The default of 'bottoms_up' trains models for each individual time series. 'grouped_hierarchy' creates a grouped time series to forecast at while 'standard_hierarchy' creates a more traditional hierarchical time series to forecast, both based on the hts package. |
parallel_processing |
Default of NULL runs no parallel processing and forecasts each individual time series one after another. 'local_machine' leverages all cores on current machine Finn is running on. 'spark' runs time series in parallel on a spark cluster in Azure Databricks or Azure Synapse. |
inner_parallel |
Run components of forecast process inside a specific time series in parallel. Can only be used if parallel_processing is set to NULL or 'spark'. |
num_cores |
Number of cores to run when parallel processing is set up. Used when running parallel computations on local machine or within Azure. Default of NULL uses total amount of cores on machine minus one. Can't be greater than number of cores on machine minus 1. |
target_log_transformation |
If TRUE, log transform target variable before training models. |
negative_forecast |
If TRUE, allow forecasts to dip below zero. |
fourier_periods |
List of values to use in creating fourier series as features. Default of NULL automatically chooses these values based on the date_type. |
lag_periods |
List of values to use in creating lag features. Default of NULL automatically chooses these values based on date_type. |
rolling_window_periods |
List of values to use in creating rolling window features. Default of NULL automatically chooses these values based on date type. |
recipes_to_run |
List of recipes to run on multivariate models that can run different recipes. A value of NULL runs all recipes, but only runs the R1 recipe for weekly and daily date types, and also for global models to prevent memory issues. A value of "all" runs all recipes, regardless of date type or if it's a local/global model. A list like c("R1") or c("R2") would only run models with the R1 or R2 recipe. |
pca |
If TRUE, run principle component analysis on any lagged features to speed up model run time. Default of NULL runs PCA on day and week date types across all local multivariate models, and also for global models across all date types. |
models_to_run |
List of models to run. Default of NULL runs all models. |
models_not_to_run |
List of models not to run, overrides values in models_to_run. Default of NULL doesn't turn off any model. |
run_global_models |
If TRUE, run multivariate models on the entire data set (across all time series) as a global model. Can be override by models_not_to_run. Default of NULL runs global models for all date types except week and day. |
run_local_models |
If TRUE, run models by individual time series as local models. |
run_ensemble_models |
If TRUE, run ensemble models. Default of NULL runs ensemble models only for quarter and month date types. |
average_models |
If TRUE, create simple averages of individual models. |
max_model_average |
Max number of models to average together. Will create model averages for 2 models up until input value or max number of models ran. |
feature_selection |
Implement feature selection before model training |
weekly_to_daily |
If TRUE, convert a week forecast down to day by evenly splitting across each day of week. Helps when aggregating up to higher temporal levels like month or quarter. |
seed |
Set seed for random number generator. Numeric value. |
run_model_parallel |
If TRUE, runs model training in parallel, only works when parallel_processing is set to 'local_machine' or 'spark'. Recommended to use a value of FALSE and leverage inner_parallel for new features. |
return_data |
If TRUE, return the forecast results. Used to be backwards compatible
with previous finnts versions. Recommended to use a value of FALSE and leverage
|
run_name |
Name used when submitting jobs to external compute like Azure Batch. Formatted as a character string. |
Value
A list of three separate data sets: the future forecast, the back test results, and the best model per time series.
Examples
run_info <- set_run_info()
finn_forecast <- forecast_time_series(
run_info = run_info,
input_data = m750 %>% dplyr::rename(Date = date),
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3,
back_test_scenarios = 6,
run_model_parallel = FALSE,
models_to_run = c("arima", "ets", "snaive"),
return_data = FALSE
)
fcst_tbl <- get_forecast_data(run_info)
models_tbl <- get_trained_models(run_info)
Get Final Forecast Data
Description
Get Final Forecast Data
Usage
get_forecast_data(run_info, return_type = "df")
Arguments
run_info |
run info using the |
return_type |
return type |
Value
table of final forecast results
Examples
data_tbl <- timetk::m4_monthly %>%
dplyr::rename(Date = date) %>%
dplyr::mutate(id = as.character(id)) %>%
dplyr::filter(
id == "M2",
Date >= "2012-01-01",
Date <= "2015-06-01"
)
run_info <- set_run_info()
prep_data(run_info,
input_data = data_tbl,
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3,
recipes_to_run = "R1"
)
prep_models(run_info,
models_to_run = c("arima", "ets"),
num_hyperparameters = 1
)
train_models(run_info,
run_local_models = TRUE
)
final_models(run_info,
average_models = FALSE
)
fcst_tbl <- get_forecast_data(run_info)
Get Prepped Data
Description
Get Prepped Data
Usage
get_prepped_data(run_info, recipe, return_type = "df")
Arguments
run_info |
run info using the |
recipe |
recipe to return. Either a value of "R1" or "R2" |
return_type |
return type |
Value
table of prepped data
Examples
data_tbl <- timetk::m4_monthly %>%
dplyr::rename(Date = date) %>%
dplyr::mutate(id = as.character(id)) %>%
dplyr::filter(
id == "M2",
Date >= "2012-01-01",
Date <= "2015-06-01"
)
run_info <- set_run_info()
prep_data(run_info,
input_data = data_tbl,
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3,
recipes_to_run = "R1"
)
R1_prepped_data_tbl <- get_prepped_data(run_info,
recipe = "R1"
)
Get Prepped Model Info
Description
Get Prepped Model Info
Usage
get_prepped_models(run_info)
Arguments
run_info |
run info using the |
Value
table with data related to model workflows, hyperparameters, and back testing
Examples
data_tbl <- timetk::m4_monthly %>%
dplyr::rename(Date = date) %>%
dplyr::mutate(id = as.character(id)) %>%
dplyr::filter(
id == "M2",
Date >= "2012-01-01",
Date <= "2015-06-01"
)
run_info <- set_run_info()
prep_data(run_info,
input_data = data_tbl,
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3,
recipes_to_run = "R1"
)
prep_models(run_info,
models_to_run = c("arima", "ets"),
num_hyperparameters = 1
)
prepped_models_tbl <- get_prepped_models(run_info = run_info)
Get run info
Description
Lets you get all of the logging associated with a specific experiment or run.
Usage
get_run_info(
experiment_name = NULL,
run_name = NULL,
storage_object = NULL,
path = NULL
)
Arguments
experiment_name |
Name used to group similar runs under a single experiment name. |
run_name |
Name to distinguish one run of Finn from another. The current time in UTC is appended to the run name to ensure a unique run name is created. |
storage_object |
Used to store outputs during a run to other storage services in Azure. Could be a storage container object from the 'AzureStor' package to connect to ADLS blob storage or a OneDrive/SharePoint object from the 'Microsoft365R' package to connect to a OneDrive folder or SharePoint site. Default of NULL will save outputs to the local file system. |
path |
String showing what file path the outputs should be written to. Default of NULL will write the outputs to a temporary directory within R, which will delete itself after the R session closes. |
Value
Data frame of run log information
Examples
run_info <- set_run_info(
experiment_name = "finn_forecast",
run_name = "test_run"
)
run_info_tbl <- get_run_info(
experiment_name = "finn_forecast"
)
Get Final Trained Models
Description
Get Final Trained Models
Usage
get_trained_models(run_info)
Arguments
run_info |
run info using the |
Value
table of final trained models
Examples
data_tbl <- timetk::m4_monthly %>%
dplyr::rename(Date = date) %>%
dplyr::mutate(id = as.character(id)) %>%
dplyr::filter(
id == "M2",
Date >= "2012-01-01",
Date <= "2015-06-01"
)
run_info <- set_run_info()
prep_data(run_info,
input_data = data_tbl,
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3,
recipes_to_run = "R1"
)
prep_models(run_info,
models_to_run = c("arima", "ets"),
num_hyperparameters = 1
)
train_models(run_info,
run_global_models = FALSE,
run_local_models = TRUE
)
final_models(run_info,
average_models = FALSE
)
models_tbl <- get_trained_models(run_info)
GLMNET Multistep Horizon
Description
GLMNET Multistep Horizon
Usage
glmnet_multistep(
mode = "regression",
mixture = NULL,
penalty = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
mode |
A single character string for the type of model. The only possible value for this model is "regression". |
mixture |
mixture |
penalty |
penalty |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Value
Get Multistep Horizon GLMNET model
Bridge GLMNET Multistep Modeling function
Description
Bridge GLMNET Multistep Modeling function
Usage
glmnet_multistep_fit_impl(
x,
y,
alpha = 0,
lambda = 1,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
x |
A dataframe of xreg (exogenous regressors) |
y |
A numeric vector of values to fit |
alpha |
alpha |
lambda |
lambda |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Bridge prediction Function for GLMNET Multistep Horizon Models
Description
Bridge prediction Function for GLMNET Multistep Horizon Models
Usage
glmnet_multistep_predict_impl(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
... |
Additional
|
Value
predictions
List all available models
Description
List all available models
Usage
list_models()
Value
list of models
MARS Multistep Horizon
Description
MARS Multistep Horizon
Usage
mars_multistep(
mode = "regression",
num_terms = NULL,
prod_degree = NULL,
prune_method = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
mode |
A single character string for the type of model. The only possible value for this model is "regression". |
num_terms |
The number of features that will be retained in the final model, including the intercept. |
prod_degree |
The highest possible interaction degree. |
prune_method |
The pruning method. |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Value
Get Multistep Horizon MARS model
Bridge MARS Multistep Modeling function
Description
Bridge MARS Multistep Modeling function
Usage
mars_multistep_fit_impl(
x,
y,
nprune = NULL,
degree = 1L,
pmethod = "backward",
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
x |
A dataframe of xreg (exogenous regressors) |
y |
A numeric vector of values to fit |
nprune |
The number of features that will be retained in the final model, including the intercept. |
degree |
The highest possible interaction degree. |
pmethod |
The pruning method. |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Bridge prediction Function for mars Multistep Horizon Models
Description
Bridge prediction Function for mars Multistep Horizon Models
Usage
mars_multistep_predict_impl(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
... |
Additional
|
Value
predictions
Predict custom cubist model
Description
Predict custom cubist model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'cubist_multistep_fit_impl'
predict(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
Value
predictions
Predict custom glmnet model
Description
Predict custom glmnet model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'glmnet_multistep_fit_impl'
predict(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
Value
predictions
Predict custom mars model
Description
Predict custom mars model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'mars_multistep_fit_impl'
predict(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
Value
predictions
Predict custom svm_poly model
Description
Predict custom svm_poly model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_poly_multistep_fit_impl'
predict(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
Value
predictions
Predict custom svm_rbf model
Description
Predict custom svm_rbf model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_rbf_multistep_fit_impl'
predict(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
Value
predictions
Predict custom xgboost model
Description
Predict custom xgboost model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'xgboost_multistep_fit_impl'
predict(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
Value
predictions
Prep Data
Description
Preps data with various feature engineering recipes to create features before training models
Usage
prep_data(
run_info,
input_data,
combo_variables,
target_variable,
date_type,
forecast_horizon,
external_regressors = NULL,
hist_start_date = NULL,
hist_end_date = NULL,
combo_cleanup_date = NULL,
fiscal_year_start = 1,
clean_missing_values = TRUE,
clean_outliers = FALSE,
box_cox = FALSE,
stationary = TRUE,
forecast_approach = "bottoms_up",
parallel_processing = NULL,
num_cores = NULL,
target_log_transformation = FALSE,
fourier_periods = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
rolling_window_periods = NULL,
recipes_to_run = NULL,
multistep_horizon = FALSE
)
Arguments
run_info |
Run info using |
input_data |
A standard data frame, tibble, or spark data frame using sparklyr of historical time series data. Can also include external regressors for both historical and future data. |
combo_variables |
List of column headers within input data to be used to separate individual time series. |
target_variable |
The column header formatted as a character value within input data you want to forecast. |
date_type |
The date granularity of the input data. Finn accepts the following as a character string: day, week, month, quarter, year. |
forecast_horizon |
Number of periods to forecast into the future. |
external_regressors |
List of column headers within input data to be used as features in multivariate models. |
hist_start_date |
Date value of when your input_data starts. Default of NULL uses earliest date value in input_data. |
hist_end_date |
Date value of when your input_data ends. Default of NULL uses the latest date value in input_data. |
combo_cleanup_date |
Date value to remove individual time series that don't contain non-zero values after that specified date. Default of NULL is to not remove any time series and attempt to forecast all time series. |
fiscal_year_start |
Month number of start of fiscal year of input data, aids in building out date features. Formatted as a numeric value. Default of 1 assumes fiscal year starts in January. |
clean_missing_values |
If TRUE, cleans missing values. Only impute values for missing data within an existing series, and does not add new values onto the beginning or end, but does provide a value of 0 for said values. |
clean_outliers |
If TRUE, outliers are cleaned and inputted with values more in line with historical data. |
box_cox |
Apply box-cox transformation to normalize variance in data |
stationary |
Apply differencing to make data stationary |
forecast_approach |
How the forecast is created. The default of 'bottoms_up' trains models for each individual time series. Value of 'grouped_hierarchy' creates a grouped time series to forecast at while 'standard_hierarchy' creates a more traditional hierarchical time series to forecast, both based on the hts package. |
parallel_processing |
Default of NULL runs no parallel processing and forecasts each individual time series one after another. Value of 'local_machine' leverages all cores on current machine Finn is running on. Value of 'spark' runs time series in parallel on a spark cluster in Azure Databricks/Synapse. |
num_cores |
Number of cores to run when parallel processing is set up. Used when running parallel computations on local machine or within Azure. Default of NULL uses total amount of cores on machine minus one. Can't be greater than number of cores on machine minus 1. |
target_log_transformation |
If TRUE, log transform target variable before training models. |
fourier_periods |
List of values to use in creating fourier series as features. Default of NULL automatically chooses these values based on the date_type. |
lag_periods |
List of values to use in creating lag features. Default of NULL automatically chooses these values based on date_type. |
rolling_window_periods |
List of values to use in creating rolling window features. Default of NULL automatically chooses these values based on date_type. |
recipes_to_run |
List of recipes to run on multivariate models that can run different recipes. A value of NULL runs all recipes, but only runs the R1 recipe for weekly and daily date types. A value of "all" runs all recipes, regardless of date type. A list like c("R1") or c("R2") would only run models with the R1 or R2 recipe. |
multistep_horizon |
Use a multistep horizon approach when training multivariate models with R1 recipe. |
Value
No return object. Feature engineered data is written to disk based on the output locations provided in
set_run_info()
.
Examples
data_tbl <- timetk::m4_monthly %>%
dplyr::rename(Date = date) %>%
dplyr::mutate(id = as.character(id)) %>%
dplyr::filter(
Date >= "2013-01-01",
Date <= "2015-06-01"
)
run_info <- set_run_info()
prep_data(run_info,
input_data = data_tbl,
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3,
recipes_to_run = "R1"
)
Prep Models
Description
Preps various aspects of run before training models. Things like train/test splits, creating hyperparameters, etc.
Usage
prep_models(
run_info,
back_test_scenarios = NULL,
back_test_spacing = NULL,
models_to_run = NULL,
models_not_to_run = NULL,
run_ensemble_models = TRUE,
pca = NULL,
num_hyperparameters = 10,
seed = 123
)
Arguments
run_info |
run info using the |
back_test_scenarios |
Number of specific back test folds to run when determining the best model. Default of NULL will automatically choose the number of back tests to run based on historical data size, which tries to always use a minimum of 80% of the data when training a model. |
back_test_spacing |
Number of periods to move back for each back test scenario. Default of NULL moves back 1 period at a time for year, quarter, and month data. Moves back 4 for week and 7 for day data. |
models_to_run |
List of models to run. Default of NULL runs all models. |
models_not_to_run |
List of models not to run, overrides values in models_to_run. Default of NULL doesn't turn off any model. |
run_ensemble_models |
If TRUE, prep for ensemble models. |
pca |
If TRUE, run principle component analysis on any lagged features to speed up model run time. Default of NULL runs PCA on day and week date types across all local multivariate models, and also for global models across all date types. |
num_hyperparameters |
number of hyperparameter combinations to test out on validation data for model tuning. |
seed |
Set seed for random number generator. Numeric value. |
Value
Writes outputs related to model prep to disk.
Examples
data_tbl <- timetk::m4_monthly %>%
dplyr::rename(Date = date) %>%
dplyr::mutate(id = as.character(id)) %>%
dplyr::filter(
Date >= "2012-01-01",
Date <= "2015-06-01"
)
run_info <- set_run_info()
prep_data(run_info,
input_data = data_tbl,
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3
)
prep_models(run_info,
models_to_run = c("arima", "ets", "glmnet")
)
Print custom cubist model
Description
Print custom cubist model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'cubist_multistep'
print(x, ...)
Value
Prints model info
Print fitted custom cubist model
Description
Print fitted custom cubist model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'cubist_multistep_fit_impl'
print(x, ...)
Value
prints custom model
Print custom glmnet model
Description
Print custom glmnet model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'glmnet_multistep'
print(x, ...)
Value
Prints model info
Print fitted custom glmnet model
Description
Print fitted custom glmnet model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'glmnet_multistep_fit_impl'
print(x, ...)
Value
prints custom model
Print custom mars model
Description
Print custom mars model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'mars_multistep'
print(x, ...)
Value
Prints model info
Print fitted custom mars model
Description
Print fitted custom mars model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'mars_multistep_fit_impl'
print(x, ...)
Value
prints custom model
Print custom svm_poly model
Description
Print custom svm_poly model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_poly_multistep'
print(x, ...)
Value
Prints model info
Print fitted custom svm_poly model
Description
Print fitted custom svm_poly model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_poly_multistep_fit_impl'
print(x, ...)
Value
prints custom model
Print custom svm_rbf model
Description
Print custom svm_rbf model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_rbf_multistep'
print(x, ...)
Value
Prints model info
Print fitted custom svm_rbf model
Description
Print fitted custom svm_rbf model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_rbf_multistep_fit_impl'
print(x, ...)
Value
prints custom model
Print custom xgboost model
Description
Print custom xgboost model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'xgboost_multistep'
print(x, ...)
Value
Prints model info
Print fitted custom xgboost model
Description
Print fitted custom xgboost model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'xgboost_multistep_fit_impl'
print(x, ...)
Value
prints custom model
Set up finnts submission
Description
Creates list object of information helpful in logging information about your run.
Usage
set_run_info(
experiment_name = "finn_fcst",
run_name = "finn_fcst",
storage_object = NULL,
path = NULL,
data_output = "csv",
object_output = "rds",
add_unique_id = TRUE
)
Arguments
experiment_name |
Name used to group similar runs under a single experiment name. |
run_name |
Name to distinguish one run of Finn from another. The current time in UTC is appended to the run name to ensure a unique run name is created. |
storage_object |
Used to store outputs during a run to other storage services in Azure. Could be a storage container object from the 'AzureStor' package to connect to ADLS blob storage or a OneDrive/SharePoint object from the 'Microsoft365R' package to connect to a OneDrive folder or SharePoint site. Default of NULL will save outputs to the local file system. |
path |
String showing what file path the outputs should be written to. Default of NULL will write the outputs to a temporary directory within R, which will delete itself after the R session closes. |
data_output |
String value describing the file type for data outputs. Default will write data frame outputs as csv files. The other option of 'parquet' will instead write parquet files. |
object_output |
String value describing the file type for object outputs. Default will write object outputs like trained models as rds files. The other option of 'qs' will instead serialize R objects as qs files by using the 'qs' package. |
add_unique_id |
Add a unique id to end of run_name based on submission time. Set to FALSE to supply your own unique run name, which is helpful in multistage ML pipelines. |
Value
A list of run information
Examples
run_info <- set_run_info(
experiment_name = "test_exp",
run_name = "test_run_1"
)
SVM-POLY Multistep Horizon
Description
SVM-POLY Multistep Horizon
Usage
svm_poly_multistep(
mode = "regression",
cost = NULL,
degree = NULL,
scale_factor = NULL,
margin = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
mode |
A single character string for the type of model. The only possible value for this model is "regression". |
cost |
A positive number for the cost of predicting a sample within or on the wrong side of the margin. |
degree |
A positive number for polynomial degree. |
scale_factor |
A positive number for the polynomial scaling factor. |
margin |
A positive number for the epsilon in the SVM insensitive loss function |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Value
Get Multistep Horizon SVM-POLY model
Bridge SVM-POLY Multistep Modeling function
Description
Bridge SVM-POLY Multistep Modeling function
Usage
svm_poly_multistep_fit_impl(
x,
y,
C = double(1),
degree = integer(1),
scale = double(1),
epsilon = double(1),
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
x |
A dataframe of xreg (exogenous regressors) |
y |
A numeric vector of values to fit |
C |
A positive number for the cost of predicting a sample within or on the wrong side of the margin. |
degree |
A positive number for polynomial degree. |
scale |
A positive number for the polynomial scaling factor. |
epsilon |
A positive number for the epsilon in the SVM insensitive loss function |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Bridge prediction Function for SVM-POLY Multistep Horizon Models
Description
Bridge prediction Function for SVM-POLY Multistep Horizon Models
Usage
svm_poly_multistep_predict_impl(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
... |
Additional
|
Value
predictions
SVM-RBF Multistep Horizon
Description
SVM-RBF Multistep Horizon
Usage
svm_rbf_multistep(
mode = "regression",
cost = NULL,
rbf_sigma = NULL,
margin = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
mode |
A single character string for the type of model. The only possible value for this model is "regression". |
cost |
A positive number for the cost of predicting a sample within or on the wrong side of the margin. |
rbf_sigma |
A positive number for radial basis function. |
margin |
A positive number for the epsilon in the SVM insensitive loss function. |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Value
Get Multistep Horizon SVM-RBF model
Bridge SVM-RBF Multistep Modeling function
Description
Bridge SVM-RBF Multistep Modeling function
Usage
svm_rbf_multistep_fit_impl(
x,
y,
C = double(1),
sigma = integer(1),
epsilon = double(1),
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
x |
A dataframe of xreg (exogenous regressors) |
y |
A numeric vector of values to fit |
C |
A positive number for the cost of predicting a sample within or on the wrong side of the margin. |
sigma |
A positive number for radial basis function. |
epsilon |
A positive number for the epsilon in the SVM insensitive loss function |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Bridge prediction Function for SVM-RBF Multistep Horizon Models
Description
Bridge prediction Function for SVM-RBF Multistep Horizon Models
Usage
svm_rbf_multistep_predict_impl(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
... |
Additional
|
Value
predictions
Train Individual Models
Description
Train Individual Models
Usage
train_models(
run_info,
run_global_models = FALSE,
run_local_models = TRUE,
global_model_recipes = c("R1"),
feature_selection = FALSE,
negative_forecast = FALSE,
parallel_processing = NULL,
inner_parallel = FALSE,
num_cores = NULL,
seed = 123
)
Arguments
run_info |
run info using the |
run_global_models |
If TRUE, run multivariate models on the entire data set (across all time series) as a global model. Can be override by models_not_to_run. Default of NULL runs global models for all date types except week and day. |
run_local_models |
If TRUE, run models by individual time series as local models. |
global_model_recipes |
Recipes to use in global models. |
feature_selection |
Implement feature selection before model training |
negative_forecast |
If TRUE, allow forecasts to dip below zero. |
parallel_processing |
Default of NULL runs no parallel processing and forecasts each individual time series one after another. 'local_machine' leverages all cores on current machine Finn is running on. 'spark' runs time series in parallel on a spark cluster in Azure Databricks or Azure Synapse. |
inner_parallel |
Run components of forecast process inside a specific time series in parallel. Can only be used if parallel_processing is set to NULL or 'spark'. |
num_cores |
Number of cores to run when parallel processing is set up. Used when running parallel computations on local machine or within Azure. Default of NULL uses total amount of cores on machine minus one. Can't be greater than number of cores on machine minus 1. |
seed |
Set seed for random number generator. Numeric value. |
Value
trained model outputs are written to disk.
Examples
data_tbl <- timetk::m4_monthly %>%
dplyr::rename(Date = date) %>%
dplyr::mutate(id = as.character(id)) %>%
dplyr::filter(
Date >= "2013-01-01",
Date <= "2015-06-01"
)
run_info <- set_run_info()
prep_data(run_info,
input_data = data_tbl,
combo_variables = c("id"),
target_variable = "value",
date_type = "month",
forecast_horizon = 3
)
prep_models(run_info,
models_to_run = c("arima", "glmnet"),
num_hyperparameters = 2,
back_test_scenarios = 6,
run_ensemble_models = FALSE
)
train_models(run_info)
Translate custom cubist model
Description
Translate custom cubist model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'cubist_multistep'
translate(x, engine = x$engine, ...)
Value
translated model
Translate custom glmnet model
Description
Translate custom glmnet model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'glmnet_multistep'
translate(x, engine = x$engine, ...)
Value
translated model
Translate custom mars model
Description
Translate custom mars model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'mars_multistep'
translate(x, engine = x$engine, ...)
Value
translated model
Translate custom svm_poly model
Description
Translate custom svm_poly model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_poly_multistep'
translate(x, engine = x$engine, ...)
Value
translated model
Translate custom svm_rbf model
Description
Translate custom svm_rbf model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_rbf_multistep'
translate(x, engine = x$engine, ...)
Value
translated model
Translate custom xgboost model
Description
Translate custom xgboost model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'xgboost_multistep'
translate(x, engine = x$engine, ...)
Value
translated model
Update parameter in custom cubist model
Description
Update parameter in custom cubist model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'cubist_multistep'
update(
object,
parameters = NULL,
committees = NULL,
neighbors = NULL,
max_rules = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL,
fresh = FALSE,
...
)
Arguments
object |
model object |
parameters |
parameters |
committees |
committees |
neighbors |
neighbors |
max_rules |
max rules |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
fresh |
fresh |
... |
extra args passed to cubist |
Value
Updated model
Update parameter in custom glmnet model
Description
Update parameter in custom glmnet model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'glmnet_multistep'
update(
object,
parameters = NULL,
mixture = NULL,
penalty = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL,
fresh = FALSE,
...
)
Arguments
object |
model object |
parameters |
parameters |
mixture |
mixture |
penalty |
penalty |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
fresh |
fresh |
... |
extra args passed to glmnet |
Value
Updated model
Update parameter in custom mars model
Description
Update parameter in custom mars model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'mars_multistep'
update(
object,
parameters = NULL,
num_terms = NULL,
prod_degree = NULL,
prune_method = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL,
fresh = FALSE,
...
)
Arguments
object |
model object |
parameters |
parameters |
num_terms |
The number of features that will be retained in the final model, including the intercept. |
prod_degree |
The highest possible interaction degree. |
prune_method |
The pruning method. |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
fresh |
fresh |
... |
extra args passed to mars |
Value
Updated model
Update parameter in custom svm_poly model
Description
Update parameter in custom svm_poly model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_poly_multistep'
update(
object,
parameters = NULL,
cost = NULL,
degree = NULL,
scale_factor = NULL,
margin = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL,
fresh = FALSE,
...
)
Arguments
object |
model object |
parameters |
parameters |
cost |
A positive number for the cost of predicting a sample within or on the wrong side of the margin. |
degree |
A positive number for polynomial degree. |
scale_factor |
A positive number for the polynomial scaling factor. |
margin |
A positive number for the epsilon in the SVM insensitive loss function |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
fresh |
fresh |
... |
extra args passed to svm_poly |
Value
Updated model
Update parameter in custom svm_rbf model
Description
Update parameter in custom svm_rbf model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'svm_rbf_multistep'
update(
object,
parameters = NULL,
cost = NULL,
rbf_sigma = NULL,
margin = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL,
fresh = FALSE,
...
)
Arguments
object |
model object |
parameters |
parameters |
cost |
A positive number for the cost of predicting a sample within or on the wrong side of the margin. |
rbf_sigma |
A positive number for radial basis function. |
margin |
A positive number for the epsilon in the SVM insensitive loss function. |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
fresh |
fresh |
... |
extra args passed to svm_rbf |
Value
Updated model
Update parameter in custom xgboost model
Description
Update parameter in custom xgboost model
Usage
## S3 method for class 'xgboost_multistep'
update(
object,
parameters = NULL,
mtry = NULL,
trees = NULL,
min_n = NULL,
tree_depth = NULL,
learn_rate = NULL,
loss_reduction = NULL,
sample_size = NULL,
stop_iter = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL,
fresh = FALSE,
...
)
Arguments
object |
model object |
parameters |
parameters |
mtry |
mtry |
trees |
trees |
min_n |
min_n |
tree_depth |
tree depth |
learn_rate |
learn rate |
loss_reduction |
loss reduction |
sample_size |
number for the number (or proportion) of data that is exposed to the fitting routine. |
stop_iter |
The number of iterations without improvement before stopping |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
fresh |
fresh |
... |
extra args passed to xgboost |
Value
Updated model
XGBOOST Multistep Horizon
Description
XGBOOST Multistep Horizon
Usage
xgboost_multistep(
mode = "regression",
mtry = NULL,
trees = NULL,
min_n = NULL,
tree_depth = NULL,
learn_rate = NULL,
loss_reduction = NULL,
sample_size = NULL,
stop_iter = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL
)
Arguments
mode |
A single character string for the type of model. The only possible value for this model is "regression". |
mtry |
mtry |
trees |
trees |
min_n |
min_n |
tree_depth |
tree depth |
learn_rate |
learn rate |
loss_reduction |
loss reduction |
sample_size |
number for the number (or proportion) of data that is exposed to the fitting routine. |
stop_iter |
The number of iterations without improvement before stopping |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
Value
Get Multistep Horizon XGBoost model
Bridge XGBOOST Multistep Modeling function
Description
Bridge XGBOOST Multistep Modeling function
Usage
xgboost_multistep_fit_impl(
x,
y,
max_depth = 6,
nrounds = 15,
eta = 0.3,
colsample_bytree = NULL,
colsample_bynode = NULL,
min_child_weight = 1,
gamma = 0,
subsample = 1,
validation = 0,
early_stop = NULL,
lag_periods = NULL,
external_regressors = NULL,
forecast_horizon = NULL,
selected_features = NULL,
...
)
Arguments
x |
A dataframe of xreg (exogenous regressors) |
y |
A numeric vector of values to fit |
max_depth |
An integer for the maximum depth of the tree. |
nrounds |
An integer for the number of boosting iterations. |
eta |
A numeric value between zero and one to control the learning rate. |
colsample_bytree |
Subsampling proportion of columns. |
colsample_bynode |
Subsampling proportion of columns for each node
within each tree. See the |
min_child_weight |
A numeric value for the minimum sum of instance weights needed in a child to continue to split. |
gamma |
A number for the minimum loss reduction required to make a further partition on a leaf node of the tree |
subsample |
Subsampling proportion of rows. |
validation |
A positive number. If on |
early_stop |
An integer or |
lag_periods |
lag periods |
external_regressors |
external regressors |
forecast_horizon |
forecast horizon |
selected_features |
selected features |
... |
Additional arguments passed to |
Bridge prediction Function for XGBOOST Multistep Horizon Models
Description
Bridge prediction Function for XGBOOST Multistep Horizon Models
Usage
xgboost_multistep_predict_impl(object, new_data, ...)
Arguments
object |
model object |
new_data |
input data to predict |
... |
Additional arguments passed to |
Value
predictions